Nairobi,Kenya; Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga would have beaten President Uhuru Kenyattawith an unassailable margin if the presidential electoral system proposed by the March 4 Movement(M4M) had been used.
Okiya Omtatah accompanied by Eliud Owalo of the M4M movement
Coming in the wake of growing clamour for constitutional amendments by Raila’s supporters, the projected figures are bound to ignite exciting debate among key stakeholders on both sides of the political divide.
But Jubilee Coalition’s Chief Whip, Katoo Ole Metito, dismisses the proposal as “a desperate move by the CORD (Coalition for Reforms and Democracy) leadership in sustaining the narrative that they won the March elections”.
In a secret dossier labeled, “Moving From The Tyranny Of Numbers To The Safety Of Numbers In Kenya’s Presidential Elections”, the movement proposes a weighed county-by-county vote tallying system as opposed to the current system of a national centralised center.
Under this system, each county is apportioned electoral votes equal to the number of its elected Members of the National Assembly plus and additional vote for the county. For instance, Nairobi with the largest number of 17 constituencies will be allocated 18 electoral votes – 17 for the constituencies and one more for the county.
Similarly, Lamu County with smallest number of just two constituencies will be allocated three electoral votes – one each for the two constituencies and an extra for the county.
Winner takes all
Under this arrangement, there will be a total of 337 electoral votes – 290 for all the constituencies in the country plus 47 for all the counties. The M4M dossier says the county electoral votes will be tallied on a “winner-takes-it-all” basis. For instance, if candidate “A” gets majority votes in Nairobi County, irrespective of the margin, he or she is awarded all Nairobi’s 18 electoral votes.
Tabulations of the March 4 presidential results in accordance with this formula give Raila an outright win of 197 electoral votes from the counties of Nairobi, Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Taita Taveta, Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, and Turkana where he amassed majority of votes.
The CORD leader also swept the boards in Samburu, Trans Nzoia, Narok, Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii and Nyamira counties.
Meanwhile, President Kenyatta, who won the popular vote, would get 134 electoral votes under the proposed system, following wins in Mandera, Isiolo, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, and West Pokot counties. The President also garnered majority votes in Uasin Gishu, Elgero-Marakwet, Nandi, Baringo, Laikipia, Nakuru, Kajiado, Kericho and Bomet counties.
Coming in the wake of growing clamour for constitutional amendments by Raila’s supporters, the projected figures are bound to ignite exciting debate among key stakeholders on both sides of the political divide.
But Jubilee Coalition’s Chief Whip, Katoo Ole Metito, dismisses the proposal as “a desperate move by the CORD (Coalition for Reforms and Democracy) leadership in sustaining the narrative that they won the March elections”.
In a secret dossier labeled, “Moving From The Tyranny Of Numbers To The Safety Of Numbers In Kenya’s Presidential Elections”, the movement proposes a weighed county-by-county vote tallying system as opposed to the current system of a national centralised center.
Under this system, each county is apportioned electoral votes equal to the number of its elected Members of the National Assembly plus and additional vote for the county. For instance, Nairobi with the largest number of 17 constituencies will be allocated 18 electoral votes – 17 for the constituencies and one more for the county.
Similarly, Lamu County with smallest number of just two constituencies will be allocated three electoral votes – one each for the two constituencies and an extra for the county.
Winner takes all
Under this arrangement, there will be a total of 337 electoral votes – 290 for all the constituencies in the country plus 47 for all the counties. The M4M dossier says the county electoral votes will be tallied on a “winner-takes-it-all” basis. For instance, if candidate “A” gets majority votes in Nairobi County, irrespective of the margin, he or she is awarded all Nairobi’s 18 electoral votes.
Tabulations of the March 4 presidential results in accordance with this formula give Raila an outright win of 197 electoral votes from the counties of Nairobi, Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Taita Taveta, Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, and Turkana where he amassed majority of votes.
The CORD leader also swept the boards in Samburu, Trans Nzoia, Narok, Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii and Nyamira counties.
Meanwhile, President Kenyatta, who won the popular vote, would get 134 electoral votes under the proposed system, following wins in Mandera, Isiolo, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, and West Pokot counties. The President also garnered majority votes in Uasin Gishu, Elgero-Marakwet, Nandi, Baringo, Laikipia, Nakuru, Kajiado, Kericho and Bomet counties.
President Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto, curiously lead the guest list, which also includes former presidents Mwai Kibaki and Daniel arap Moi, the former PM and former Vice Presidents, Kalonzo Musyoka and Moody Awori.
During the event, M4M will sell its agenda to invited guests including all senators, MPs and governors, with a view to enabling them to make an informed opinion of the proposed electoral system.
Adopting this system, argues Omtata, will move the country away “from the current sorry state of affairs where large tribes tyrannise smaller ones during elections, and where the main criteria for occupying the Presidency is the numerical size of the ethnic blocks backing a candidate.”
Suna East MP Junnet Mohammed supports this view arguing that the system will boost the chances of those from smaller and marginalised process assuming high political offices.
“Devolution as conceived by the new Constitution does not only mean devolving of resources, but it also means devolution of political power. And that is the whole essence behind the creation of county governments,” says the MP.
However, Metito argues that the system does not give any assurances to the minorities to this effect: “Whichever way you look at it, in politics it all comes down to numbers. Even if we are talking of a parliamentary system, what, for instance, is the chance that my brother Joseph Nkaissery who is a Maasai in ODM will rise to become the party leader and therefore its presidential flag bearer?”
Omatata clarifies that M4M is neither advocating for a parliamentary system nor a vote for the President by select delegates or MPs.
“The only thing we want changed in the Constitution is the electoral process, where tallying shall be done county-by-county and through the electoral vote system. The advantage of this is that it will highly eliminate prospects of rigging,” he says.
Besides Omtata and Owalo, M4M has a steering committee whose members include Rehana Mohamed, lawyer Antony Oluoch, human rights activist, Wafula Buke, Fred Oduke and a host of civil society members.
Real drama is expected when the group holds nationwide rallies from August 24 to sensitise Kenyans on the need for to change the electoral process.
President Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto, curiously lead the guest list, which also includes former presidents Mwai Kibaki and Daniel arap Moi, the former PM and former Vice Presidents, Kalonzo Musyoka and Moody Awori.
During the event, M4M will sell its agenda to invited guests including all senators, MPs and governors, with a view to enabling them to make an informed opinion of the proposed electoral system.
Adopting this system, argues Omtata, will move the country away “from the current sorry state of affairs where large tribes tyrannise smaller ones during elections, and where the main criteria for occupying the Presidency is the numerical size of the ethnic blocks backing a candidate.”
Suna East MP Junnet Mohammed supports this view arguing that the system will boost the chances of those from smaller and marginalised process assuming high political offices.
“Devolution as conceived by the new Constitution does not only mean devolving of resources, but it also means devolution of political power. And that is the whole essence behind the creation of county governments,” says the MP.
However, Metito argues that the system does not give any assurances to the minorities to this effect: “Whichever way you look at it, in politics it all comes down to numbers. Even if we are talking of a parliamentary system, what, for instance, is the chance that my brother Joseph Nkaissery who is a Maasai in ODM will rise to become the party leader and therefore its presidential flag bearer?”
Omatata clarifies that M4M is neither advocating for a parliamentary system nor a vote for the President by select delegates or MPs.
“The only thing we want changed in the Constitution is the electoral process, where tallying shall be done county-by-county and through the electoral vote system. The advantage of this is that it will highly eliminate prospects of rigging,” he says.
Besides Omtata and Owalo, M4M has a steering committee whose members include Rehana Mohamed, lawyer Antony Oluoch, human rights activist, Wafula Buke, Fred Oduke and a host of civil society members.
Real drama is expected when the group holds nationwide rallies from August 24 to sensitise Kenyans on the need for to change the electoral process.
By OSCAR OBONYO, The Standard
