Nairobi, Kenya: CORD’s plan to end the “tyranny of numbers” that it says swept Jubilee alliance into power through a referendum will shock voters from some of the nation’s more populated areas.
Raila Odinga
It will see vote-rich counties like Kiambu, Meru, Machakos, Mombasa and Murang’a lose some of their significance in electing the president.
Smaller counties benefitting the most from the proposed changes, relative to their voter numbers, include Busia, Migori, Homa Bay, Garissa, Turkana, Mandera and Vihiga. The prospect of such a shake-up is likely to make selling the change from a presidential system to a parliamentary one a hard sell for the Opposition. Raila’s move has pushed Governors, who wanted a referendum to give counties more powers, to distance themselves from his proposal.
Speaking in Kwale this week, CORD leader Raila Odinga declared the coalition would seek to change the way Kenyans elect their president through areferendum. His party says it wants 431 popularly elected delegates to vote in a president. According to Machakos Senator, Johnstone Muthama, this American-style ‘electoral college’ would be made up of County Governors, Senators and Women’s representatives, and Members of the National Assembly, all of who would apparently be free to vote their conscience.
As the delegates come from existing electoral units, the plan will see counties with large populations but few constituencies lose their grassroots advantage.
Same clout
Kiambu, which has more than 860,000 registered voters, will have the same clout (15 delegate votes) as Kakamega, which has 300,000 fewer voters. Homa Bay, Machakos, Kitui and Migori will all have 11 delegates each, even though the largest has 445,000 voters and the smallest just 287,000. Meru, which has twice as many voters as Migori, gets just one delegate more.
Mombasa, Nyeri, Uasin Gishu and some eight other counties will have nine delegates each. The three smallest counties (Garissa, Turkana and Mandera) will have 27 delegates between them even though their combined voter totals are less than the number of voters registered in either Mombasa or Nyeri.
An alternative plan proposed by The March 4 Movement assumes 431 votes for the presidency earned automatically by winning a majority in any county or constituency post. No delegates would be required to vote again. This plan has the support of former Raila campaign manager Eliud Owalo.
Neither plan appears to accommodate eligible voters in the Diaspora.
Yesterday, the lobby group’s coordinator Okiya Omtatah Okoiti said M4M had no ties to CORD’s plan to replace the presidential system.
It will see vote-rich counties like Kiambu, Meru, Machakos, Mombasa and Murang’a lose some of their significance in electing the president.
Smaller counties benefitting the most from the proposed changes, relative to their voter numbers, include Busia, Migori, Homa Bay, Garissa, Turkana, Mandera and Vihiga. The prospect of such a shake-up is likely to make selling the change from a presidential system to a parliamentary one a hard sell for the Opposition. Raila’s move has pushed Governors, who wanted a referendum to give counties more powers, to distance themselves from his proposal.
Speaking in Kwale this week, CORD leader Raila Odinga declared the coalition would seek to change the way Kenyans elect their president through areferendum. His party says it wants 431 popularly elected delegates to vote in a president. According to Machakos Senator, Johnstone Muthama, this American-style ‘electoral college’ would be made up of County Governors, Senators and Women’s representatives, and Members of the National Assembly, all of who would apparently be free to vote their conscience.
As the delegates come from existing electoral units, the plan will see counties with large populations but few constituencies lose their grassroots advantage.
Same clout
Kiambu, which has more than 860,000 registered voters, will have the same clout (15 delegate votes) as Kakamega, which has 300,000 fewer voters. Homa Bay, Machakos, Kitui and Migori will all have 11 delegates each, even though the largest has 445,000 voters and the smallest just 287,000. Meru, which has twice as many voters as Migori, gets just one delegate more.
Mombasa, Nyeri, Uasin Gishu and some eight other counties will have nine delegates each. The three smallest counties (Garissa, Turkana and Mandera) will have 27 delegates between them even though their combined voter totals are less than the number of voters registered in either Mombasa or Nyeri.
An alternative plan proposed by The March 4 Movement assumes 431 votes for the presidency earned automatically by winning a majority in any county or constituency post. No delegates would be required to vote again. This plan has the support of former Raila campaign manager Eliud Owalo.
Neither plan appears to accommodate eligible voters in the Diaspora.
Yesterday, the lobby group’s coordinator Okiya Omtatah Okoiti said M4M had no ties to CORD’s plan to replace the presidential system.
The ‘electoral college’ proposals are informed by the belief the current method favours large ethnic communities and leaves no room for candidates from minority groups to power to the presidency. There are, however, numerous hurdles to getting them onto thelaw books.
CORD has begun seeking two million signatures to start the preliminary steps of amending the Constitution in Parliament. The coalition, which held a two-day retreat in Mombasa on Thursday and Friday to discuss the matter, was expected to move Western Kenya this weekend to address rallies in Busia and Kakamega counties, which voted strongly for Raila and benefit in the deal.
CORD rallies
The former prime minister is expected to address a series of rallies in Busia today and moves to Kakamega on Sunday as competition for perceived swing counties gets underway. Deputy President William Ruto, on his part, is expected in Malava — his fourth tour of Western in less than two months — next weekend for homecoming party of Malava MP Moses Injendi Malulu.
Not all CORD members support the push. Prof Amukowa Anangwe, one of coalition’s strategists, described the mission as “misdirected energy.”
“If the Constitution were to be amended today and the country went for a fresh election Jubilee would still win,” he says. “If you ask me, Agwambo (Raila) lost not because of the tyranny of numbers but because he has been a non-listener in this political discourse. He believed he had won long before elections, but Jubilee simply outmaneuvered him. In addition, assuming that there was not gerrymandering, Jubilee has the majority in both Houses.”
Pro- referendum MP Mohammed Junet says the analysis of last elections outcome had shown that the major tribes are the problem.
“We do not want a situation where only two tribes dominate politic for five decades,” says the MP for Suna. “That is what we want to remove.”
By JUMA KWAYERA, The Standard
