By Erick Kabendera
Extreme poverty and agonizing illiteracy rate coupled with high youth unemployment that have historically defined Southern Tanzania as the most marginalized area may have contributed to the deepening riots in Mtwara region as fear intensified that the crisis could build up and threaten security and investment interests of the country.
From the time the colonialists used the region as a recruitment centre for labourers and the post-independence governments that didn’t take trouble of building social services for the locals despite the region hosting freedom fighters from Southern Africa for many years, Mtwara has clearly been the victim of its own history.
The discovery of gas reserves in Mnazi Bay in 1982 and their subsequent exploitation in 2006 didn’t spur the growth of manufacturing and processing industries in the region which would have ultimately brought economic prosperity to the area.
A much-hyped decision reached in early 2000 to develop the so-called Mtwara Development corridor – an initiative aimed at promoting trade, investment and tourism of the region with its neighbouring countries through the integration of infrastructure – remains a pipe dream and President Jakaya Kikwete’s promise to transform the area into an industrial region is still a distant hope.
Now the ghost of its past is here to haunt the country, breeding fear that the deepening riots against the construction of gas pipeline from Mtwara to Dar es Salaam could grow into a full-blown crisis and eventually undermine the country’s security interests. This could eventually hurt the confidence of investors, who are key to buying the processed gas, and abandon further investments in gas and petroleum exploration projects.
Political and trade experts feel that the government might resort to using force to tame the riots against construction of the pipeline, but the biggest fear is that the people might sabotage the pipeline after its completion if the government and the disgruntled people in Mtwara don’t work together to find a win-win solution.
Already, other incidents such as those involving peasants in Southern Tanzania regions rioting in relation to their being short-changing them on raw cashew prices, from Tsh1,500 ($1) per kilo to Tsh700 ($1.5) offered by primary cooperatives means a growing formidable force of people who want things to change.
Subiro Mwapinga, an independent trade expert focusing on oil and gas, points out that local companies based in Mtwara which wished to be contracted to do some of the project’s work and thus help reduce the high number of unemployed youths in the area could be the source of the conflict.
The discontented groups, coupled with the expectations of the ordinary people who think the discovered oil and gas would have to filling money into their pockets, could have easily been provoked into action by shrewd politicians who are keen to get support ahead of 2015 polls, he says.
“Genuine negotiation with the local people on the ground is important to avoid sabotage of the project and future gas projects. A compression valve is normally installed after every 300m metres of the pipeline, and these could be tempered with if there is no peace,” asserts Mwapinga.
Local companies and the people should be hired and given distribution tenders, according to Mwapinga, to make the people “seen themselves in the oil and gas projects”.
But other experts point out the difficulty in finding skilled personnel for the jobs; for example, technicians in a region with one of the highest levels of illiteracy and a very low technical education enrollment rate.
A brief to examine the energy sector and the acute shortage of electricians published by a research think tank, Research on Poverty Alleviation (Repoa), published in 2010 notes that Mtwara faces a significant shortage of technicians and that public and private vocational training institutions are not sufficiently equipped to address the shortfall.
For example, the study points out that 77 per cent of students who passed the primary education examination in 2003 were unable to continue with their education due to lack of secondary schools, meaning they couldn’t qualify for any job.
“Artumas Group Tanzania, the major company involved in the development of gas reserves, has more than 75 per cent of its staff coming from outside Mtwara and the highest positions filled by Mtwara residents are junior administrative officers,” the research says.
Other experts point out that the experience of regions with mineral resources, such as Shinyanga in northern Tanzania and Mara in the North-West of the country, which have remained extremely poor, could have galvanized the residents of Mtwara into demanding the government to explain to them how they would benefit from the resources before shipping them out.
Teweli Teweli, General Manager at Africa Practice has a decade of experience advising mining companies on how to deal with disputes in mining project areas. He has observed the chaos in Mtwara unfold and feels people who are behind the chaos in Mtwara capitalized on lack of continuous engagement with the local people on the expectations from the resources by the government.
“People living in areas with such resources tend to be overexcited and develop wrong expectations. But outsiders are involved in provoking the people of Mtwara, otherwise what they are complaining about has nothing with the destruction of property.
There are two main schools of thoughts on the possible causes of the chaos in Mtwara. One of them has it that foreign companies that were interested in executing the project before it was awarded to a Chinese company may have become enraged and sponsored the chaos. Another school of thought suggests that the third biggest party Civic United Front (CUF) whose stronghold is Mtwara and most parts of Southern Tanzania as its strategy to weaken other political parties there.
Those who subscribe to the theory believe that Mtwara being a CUF stronghold and rioters torching ruling party members houses could be translated as the party cadres backing the chaos
Julius Mtatiro, CUF General Secretary admits that the party has political influence in the area but disputes the allegations, saying the party doesn’t believe that violence as a way of gaining political strength in Southern Tanzania.
“People of Mtwara have been marginalized for years and the only question they want the government to answer is how they will benefit from the gas reserves. It is a simple question that the government should have provided answers to easily,” says Mtatiro.
For Dr. Kitila Mkumbo, A Psychology lecturer the University of Dar es Salaam’s School of Education cautions the government against alleging that the dispute occurred because of politicians and interests of foreign companies because such thinking condescend the people that they cant think for themselves.
“That equals playing with people’s emotions and they will act emotionally. To accuse them that they were taught, to say the least, is disrespect,” says Dr Mkumbo.
Dr Semboja Haji of the University of Dar es Salaam’s Economics Department the gas and oil laws are archaic and the process to set up a new policy is struck, leading to activities in the sector operating under an old legal regime. He further questions the process of developing a new gas policy as not having followed proper steps.
“Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) has been searching for oil and gas theoretically and the chaos necessitates the laws to be reviewed so that local authorities should be included in the administration of sector,” says the Don.
District Commissioners and MPs don’t know details of such projects, says Dr. Semboja who accuses MPs for approving projects without understanding or demanding to see details. “It seems the government didn’t do social and environmental analysis before introducing some of the gas projects because they would have come across such challenges and found ways to address them. It is clear they used standard documents, copied and pasted,” says Dr Semboja.
The government indicated its thirsty to continue licensing more companies to undertake more oil and gas exploration projects, which potentially increases chances of further disputes in different parts of the country as people continue questioning the benefits they’re likely to get from the resources.
While Dr Mkumbo calls for candidness of contracts entered between the government and foreign investors to gain people’s confidence and show that there are no hidden agenda, Dr Semboja calls for reform of TPDC so it could work in line with people’s expectations and improve capacities of its workers.
