For those who bore the brunt of political persecution and suppression in Kenya in the 1970s and 1980s would never want to remember the physical and psychological tremor they underwent to see Kenya as it is today.
However, their courage and endurance defined and forever changed Kenya’s political landscape. Under an environment reminiscence of the struggle from imperialism, Kenya’s second liberation thrived from the underground trenches of oppressed peasants, workers, students, the youth and intellectuals. They weathered one of the fiercest repression unleashed against them to organize one of the most formidable and successful resistance movement in Kenyan history.
Several factors played to their favor. First, Kenya was by law a one party state and lack of alternative political party provided the underground resistance an avenue to link the problems facing the people to the type of political system as symbolized by KANU. Secondly, the looting and squandering of Kenya’s resources that led to people’s misery could only be blamed on the predatory politicians who were by all accounts members of the KANU regime.
Under such circumstances, an all-inclusive underground movement automatically emerged with an ideology that fully reflected the struggle of the common populace. With the then VOK being the only news channel and the good old nation and standard the only newspapers, the underground movement newspapers such as “Mzalendo”, “InDependentKenya”and “Mwakenya”were the real mouthpieces that the people of Kenya could identify with. This coupled with a strong united organization of the resistance movement made them operate effectively in an environment that didn’t allow open political activities.By 1982, it was clear that the KANU regime was standing on sinking sand. Not even the 1991 repeal of section 2A of the constitution allowing multiparty political system could save the KANU regime.
The fall of the long-standing political dominance of the KANU regime in 2002 is the closest that Kenya came to a revolution. Unlike the Egypt situation, Kenya’s regime change came through the ballot. This new political dispensation has seen Kenya weather the storms of constitutional reforms and multiparty political competition, some with tragic consequences. The level of freedom, andpolitical awareness in Kenya today points to a country slowly emerging fromrepressive regimes of the 1980s to one that is accepting the rule of law and institutional reforms as enshrined in the new constitution
These reforms and freedoms together with the devolved system of government automatically denies those calling for an“Arab Spring”like revolution a platform to mobilize such crowds as witnessed in Egypt. Also the memories of the2007-2008 post-election violence, and the subsequence ICC consequences looming over the Kenyan leadership coupled with an all drawn out March 4th elections diminishes any chances of having an all-inclusive ideological rallying point for a Kenyan revolution.
Although there are still contentious issues that rally people to demonstrate en-mass against the current government, the CORD coalition which is still smarting from the March 4th contentious election loss, is in disarray devoid of a united organizational capability to marshal a large scale resistance movement. It’s handling of the presidential election petition and the Makueni senate seat nomination debacle says a lot about its organizational ability.
Likewise, the looting and squandering of Kenya’s resources which is the reason for people’s misery and a potential rally point for mass action cannot be blamed on the current administration alone. Three month ago, the opposition failed to stand with the people and instead got cozy and cuddly with the ruling coalition in awarding themselves hefty pay tabs at the expense of the poor masses. The people’s opinion of MPs is at its lowest and any call for civil disobedience would be received with suspicion. Shouting about how the government wants to take Kenya back to the dark days and kill the opposition is not a rallying point for the 21st century Kenya. Clandestinely destabilizing the government won’t do either.
The CORD coalition needs to read the writings on the wall. They are up against determined and organized master political chess players in Jubilee government that is not afraid to engage opponents and proponents alike, both national and international. They tactfully weathered the ICC storm and beat the odds to claim leadership of this country. Even with the vigorous vetting institutions, none of their appointees failed to be approved. They are rolling out their agenda without any substantive engagement that seems to leave the CORD flat footed. The teachers’ strike that started on a popular noteand supported by CORD fizzled out after the governments three thronged end-strike strategy that saw union leaders rush to cut a last minute deal they had earlier rejected. This comes at the heels of the Makueni Senatorial petition that left the CORD coalition with a bloody nose.
Though the truth about who is behind the current saga in organizing Egypt like revolution is still unknown, the questioning of the former Prime Minister’s aid in this respects may not ferment enough passion to get the Kenyan people on the streets. While the individual rights for expression, association, assembly and even protest are guaranteed by the new constitution, such rights cannot supersede the rights for peace of the Kenyan people. The Opposition may not get sympathy votes if they run with the narrative that they are being targeted as a group.
Although Kenya has a long history of oppressive acts and corruption, supporting a coup as seen in Egypt would be tricky. Unlike Kenya, Egypt has no historical precedent for or experience with democracy and military coups are praised. Kenya on the other has experience with democracy albeit young. This coupled with dark historical injustices, political assassinations, coup attempts and election violence; Kenyans are couscous and may still want to support the current government until they exercise their democratic right at the ballot again. It is not surprising after 3 month of stormy time in office; the president still enjoys 51% popularity
Dr.Tsuma Clive Katiba Ph.D.
Faculty, Public Policy and International Relations,
Walden University,
Research Fellow
International Center for Information Technology Development
USA